3 Things to Watch in Tonight’s Florida Debate

Fresh off a stunning primary in South Carolina, the GOP opens up in the Sunshine State with a debate hosted by NBC.  The dynamics have changed dramatically since the last debate.   Newt Gingrich’s crushing victory over Mitt Romney in SC has left the former front runner grasping for anything that will slow his fall.  Doesn’t help that Mitt is greasing the slide with his rich boy gaffes but that’s the nature of politics – not everything can be scripted.  Meanwhile, Santorum remains steady – no reason to leave the race with Newt as the frontrunner, but Rick’s concession speech seems to signal that he is running for both the Presidential and VP nomination and as such there were few criticisms leveled at any candidate.  Interesting to see if that holds tonight.   Last, and in this rare case probably least, Ron Paul is going nowhere.   The level of support he has today is more than he’s ever had.  For Paul, this is not a one man race, this is a relay – Ron to Rand.  So as long as there is airtime, Paul will be involved.

Things to watch tonight:

1)  Romney will go after Newt – Mitt’s desperate, once inevitable he is now bloodied and cornered.  Nothing surprising here – the strategy is always to attack the front runner.  We say we hate negativity but we respond to it,  so look for a heavy dose tonight.   Attacking Newt works for Romney on 3 fronts; a) if done correctly Mitt can look strong (big IF) and more credible for a fight with Obama, b) Spotlights Newt which c) gives Mitt cover from being the sole focus of attention.  The risk is that he is poor in his attack and/or that Gingrich lands a better counterpunch.   That said…

2) Romney won’t escape ridicule – he releases his tax returns tomorrow, but only 2 years.  His father, George Romney released 12 years saying 1 year could be a hoax, and Obama released 6 years worth.  Is this enough to quiet the issue? Then there’s Bain Capital.  Romney has yet to answer – in 2 debates – direct questions as to why Bain deserved to walk away from bankrupt companies with $100M rewards in fees and dividends, leaving in its wake ghost towns and out of work families.  Will it be brought up again tonight?  Romney should consider himself lucky if it doesn’t – his answers show that he truly has no answer for it.

3) Florida -Foreclosure, Immigrants, and Medicare, Oh My – the Orange Bowl state has some unique issues that could prove problematic for all but especially for Romney.  Florida has had one of the highest rate of foreclosures in the nation – Mitt has made a few insensitive statements in this area notably in Nevada.  Romney’s hard stance on immigration and his embrace of the Paul Ryan budget to restructure Medicare could prove unpopular in a state that boast large populations in both groups.  Will any of this come up and how will he answer?   I feel a few flips coming.

Its been a wild ride already and tonight should deliver a steady flow of one-liners between Mitt and  Newt.   Also, I will be interested to see how Brian Williams handles the questions, the answers (if Newt attempts a John King media skewering), etc.  Williams moonlights as a comedian who, in my opinion, are the most dangerous types to agitate.  Debaters beware.

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